and maybe just bring in john riding here. john, two things. one is the how good a christmas was it, can we tell from these numbers? and does any of this matter given that the payroll tax hike is going to take effect and we're going to see a decline in consumer spending probably? >> well, it looks like retail sales were fairly decent in the holiday season, especially given expectations that people had coming in, and concern of the fiscal cliff, throwing a big wet blanket over the christmas sales. it didn't look like it happened there. and it didn't look like it happened on a bunch of other economic indicators. so, i'm moderately reassured that the economy came into the end of the year with reasonable momentum. now whether that momentum carries through the payroll tax hike, that's a different question. we estimate that that could add up to a two-thirds of a percent drag on gdp growth this year. and i think it's a year where consumer spending is not going to lead economic activity. it's going to more be happening in housing, it's going to happen